Here’s what Wall Street expects:
- Earnings: $2.88 per share, 23% lower than a year earlier, according to Refinitiv.
- Revenue: $32.1 billion, 5.4% higher than a year earlier.
- Provision for credit losses: $1.37 billion, according to StreetAccount
- Trading Revenue: Fixed income $4.18 billion, Equities $2.65 billion, according to StreetAccount
- Investment banking revenue: $1.74 billion, per StreetAccount
JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, will be watched closely for clues on how banks are navigating a confusing environment.
On the one hand, unemployment levels remain low, meaning consumers and businesses have little difficulty repaying loans. Rising interest rates mean that banks’ core lending activity is becoming more profitable. And volatility in financial markets has been a boon to fixed income traders.
But investors have dumped bank shares lately, pushing JPMorgan and others to fresh 52-week lows this week, on concern that the Federal Reserve will inadvertently trigger a recession. Investment banking and mortgage lending revenue has fallen sharply, and firms could disclose write-downs amid the decline in financial assets.
On top of that, banks are expected to begin to boost reserves for loan losses as concerns of a recession increase; the six biggest U.S. banks by assets are expected to set aside a combined $4.5 billion in reserves, according to analysts.
That aligns with the cautious tone from CEO Jamie Dimon, who said this week that he saw a recession hitting the U.S. in the next six to nine months.
Last month, JPMorgan president Daniel Pinto warned that third-quarter investment banking revenue was headed for a decline of up to 50%, thanks to the collapse in IPO activity and debt and equity issuance. Helping offset that, trading revenue was headed for a 5% jump from a year earlier on strong fixed income activity, he said.
As a result, investors should expect a mishmash of conflicting trends in the quarter and a wider-than-usual range of outcomes among the six biggest U.S. institutions.
Shares of JPMorgan have dropped 31% this year through Thursday, worse than the 25% decline of the KBW Bank Index
This story is developing. Please check back for updates.